The dizzying pace of global developments in our time makes it difficult to analyze reality from a historic perspective, since events seem to pre-empt all predictions. Still, it’s important to try to see the big picture.
I want to focus on two aspects, the religious-cultural aspect and the demographic-economic one, and suggest a historic context for two phenomena that I believe continue to shape reality. One is the nature and roots of Islamic resistance to the West, embodied in a clear and extreme way by the Islamic State, and the second is the large waves of migration in our time, which are responsible for a process of irreversible and uncontrollable changes in the demography of Europe and the United States, and in how the world looks in general.
The explanation I am suggesting for the two phenomena rests on the natural process theory from the school of Oswald Spengler, Arnold Toynbee and Samuel Huntington, whose common hypothesis was that cultures and religions go through phases like those of a living organism. That is, you can discern stages in their historical development: A childhood phase, characterized by consolidation and self-determination; an adolescent phase, for the most part violent and characterized by conquest and expansion; and in the end, a stage of maturity, characterized by moderation and tolerance.