Only six months on and the metaphors are already starting to grate. The Arab spring has entered a long, hot summer and, in the view of some commentators, is headed for the deep freeze of winter. There is something unexamined about this view, which appears to hanker after the old order in the Middle East, and perhaps wants it replaced with some sort of status quo-lite.
But has the pent-up yearning for change across the Arab world really gone so wrong?
There was never even a remote possibility that the transition from entrenched, often western-backed autocracies could be anything other than messy and prolonged, and often violent. The successful topplings of the Ben Ali and Mubarak regimes in Tunisia and Egypt are seen as peaceful – which they were in comparison to the present conflicts in Syria and Libya. Yet, in Egypt, for example, while the tactics of the Tahrir Square revolutionaries were for the most part non-violent, 850 people were still killed by regime forces, according to official figures.




